The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The following table shows the actual data. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data from the 1. I often find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. Overall the house edge on over bets is 5. Following are the result of every NFL game from the 1. For more on betting home underdogs I recommend Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Expected Return against Point Spread in the NFLEvent. The expected return is for the standard laying 1.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns. In the NFL home underdogs have historically done well against the spread. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term. Many people call this a straight bet but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. I admit point spread bet is not a common term in sports betting, but Im trying to change that. Sign Wizard 4.1 Software' title='Sign Wizard 4.1 Software' />Point Spread Bets.
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